The empirical results from granger causality technique clearly indicate that there exists unidirectional causality from gdp to exports in pakistan but not vice versa. Paper empirically analyzes impact on regional gdp per capital of increased import volume and. Contribution of agricultural exports to economic growth in. This paper investigates the relationship between exports, imports, and economic growth in panama. The duo crisis of food and finance around the world had left agricultural exports and economic growth on its lowest ebb in namibia. Analyze the impact on the growth of industrial exports in terms of value added of. However, this study will test of the impact of exports and imports on the economic growth of tunis over the period 19772012.
Growth creates jobs economic growth generates job opportunities and hence stronger demand for labour, the main and often the sole asset of the poor. The relationship between export and economic growth in libya arab jamahiriya 71 approximately 95% of export earnings, 75% of the government receipts and 3040% of the gross domestic product energy information administration, 2002. In latin america, there is a broad debate about the role of exports in economic growth. In turn, increasing employment has been crucial in delivering higher growth. Both the ols regression and granger causality results support the hypothesis that agricultural exports led economic growth in nigeria. Northholland export expansion and ecqnonuc growth further empirical evidence rostam m. It rev1ews recent trends in world trade in major product groups. The contractions in exports lead to the contraction in namibias economic growth. The aim of this paper, therefore, is to econometrically. Rangasamy 2008 examined the exports and economic growth relationship for south africa, and provides the evidence that the unidirectional granger causality runs from exports to economic growth sharma p. Modeling the impact of exports on the economic growth of pakistan.
First, poverty cannot be reduced in isolation from economic growthan observation that has. Each year the board of trustees of the old age, survivors and disability insurance. There existed strong evidence for long run granger causality in all countries. However, the role played by domestic demand has been little studied. The causal relationship between exports and economic. This paper is set to contribute to the extant literature by investigating econometrically the existence or not of a longrun relationship between globalization and economic growth in nigeria and more precisely the. Inflation and unemployment are closely related, at least in the shortrun. The successful records of the four dragons or even four tigers have received much attention in the literature on economic growth and have revived the debate on the effectiveness of outward. At an extreme end, some authors find no causal relationship between the two series mutairi, 1993. Review of literature the detrimental effects of export instability on economic growth and investment were investigated for less developing countries by macbeen and maizels, 1968 for eleven developing countries over the time period 195060 by using single equation regression model.
The importance of trade for developing countries abstract this paper indicates the benefits developing countries may derive through international trade. Economic policy what are the commonly held goals of economic management. Economic growth affect exports growth if the domestic production increases faster than the domestic demand sharma and dhakal 1994, ahmad and harnhirun 1996, shan and tian 1998. The relationship between exports and economic growth is a frequent topic of discussion, when economists try to explain the different levels of economic growth between countries. Southern economic journal 2002, 684, 859874 trade and gdp growth. The hypothesis presented here is that there is a causal relationship between the two, that this relationship is one of interdependence rather than of unilateral causation, but that it is mainly a rise in exports that stimulates an increase in aggregate economic growth. Effects of exports instability on economic growth in saarc. The relationship between export growth and economic growth has been a popular subject of debate among development economists. Export diversification and economic growth iii about the series the commission on growth and development led by nobel laureate mike spence was established in april 2006 as a response to two insights. Dawson 2005 studied the contribution of agricultural exports to economic growth in least developed countries. Effects of exports instability on economic growth 99 2. Afghanistan is an importing country because of the fact that most of industries, including agriculture and handicraft were recently destroyed. Central to this debate is the question of whether strong economic performance.
The second view is that causality runs from economic growth to exports. Exports of goods and services represent one of the most important sources. Pdf the role of net export on economic growth in usa. Granger causality results support the hypothesis that agricultural exports led economic growth in nigeria. Government and the economy economic goals, policy and effects. This paper analyzes the sources of growth in the period 19641973 for a group of semiindustrialized less developed countries. Empirical results show that there is a unidirectional causality from economic growth to export.
The role of net export on economic growth in usa article pdf available in journal of applied economic sciences volume xii,issue 349 january 2017 with 2,293 reads how we measure reads. Higher productivity leads to a lower unit cost, which facilitates exports growth kaldor 1967. Masoud albiman md and suleiman nn 2016 investigated the nexus between exports, imports and economic growth in malaysia, using annual data for the period 1967 2010. However, many evidences fail to unequivocally support a robust export economic growth nexus.
Import impact of economic growth on regional economies martins priede xianjiaotongliverpool university abstract. Abstract the nature of the relationship between exports and countrys economic growth has been one of the most debated topic in the recent past, yet with little consensus. A comparative study of mauritius and tunisia s i m o n m i c h a e l c a r e y a thesis submitted to the victoria university of wellington in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of master of arts in economics victoria university of wellington 2011. National kaohsiung university of applied sciences and national chungcheng university during the process of economic development, different economic policies are adopted in. The results, however, show an inverse relationship. Zestos and xiangnan taof causal relations between the growth rates of exports, imports, and the gdp of canada and the. Pavel gertler,national bank of slovakia the main message from the classical model of international trade is that growth in trade leads by way of comparative advantages to stronger economic performance in the future. Relationship between exports, imports, and economic growth. Mar, 2018 however, economic growth could increase exports.
The results are based on annual data collected from 1960 to 2009. Relationship between exports and economic growth of pakistan. An empirical analysis on the relationship between non oil. Department of economics, university of the western cape. This paper investigates the impact of agricultural exports on economic growth in nigeria using ols regression, granger causality, impulse response function and variance decomposition approaches. The relationship between export and economic growth in libya. Dec 27, 2016 this paper, prepared in the framework of granger casuality technique extended by taking account of recent relevant literature, analyzes the causality between exports, imports and economic growth in kosovo. The relationship among exports, imports and economic. Relationship between importexports and economic growth. Pdf impact of exports on economic growth empirical evidence of.
Summary among economists there has generally been a lack of agreement as to the specific relation between exports and economic growth. Kayoussi the kh of lntentational studies, uniuetsity of washington, seattle, w98195, usa received august 1982, final version received december 1982 this paper examines the relationship between export expansion and economic growth in a sample of. An empirical study on import, export and economic growth in albania. Exports and economic growth in asian developing countries. The role of exports in african economic development. This suggests that export expansion might not be an efficient strategy to improve provincial economic performance in south africa as neither exports nor economic growth is sensitive to each other in almost. The analysis also reveals that the exports along with labor force, investment and domestic credit to private sector. Based on the results, the study recommends that policy makers should focus on maintaining an open and export oriented policy in order to ensure growth in the economy and also to adequately promote economic growth for export expansion. Pdf export performance and economic growth moges alemu. The causal relationship between exports and economic growth. Impact of exports and imports scholarlink research.
An empirical study on import, export and economic growth in. Expanding exports, personal consumption expenditures, and business and residential investment together added another 3. In order to achieve this purpose, annual data for the periods between 1980 and 2015 was tested by. An analytical framework is developed, incorporating the possibility that marginal factor productivities are not equal in the. Read pages 634641 in we the people and to understand why each of these goals is a good thing. Effects of agricultural, manufacturing, and mineral exports on. In this paper, export led growth elg, import led growth ilg, growth driven exports gde, and growth. According to regression results, it is found that exports are a significant determinant of economic growth. Ekanayake1 this paper uses cointegration and errorcorrection models to analyze the causal relationship between export growth and economic growth in eight asian developing countries using annual data from 1960 to 1997. Relationship between exports, imports, and economic growth in france. The nominal value of exports leapt from ld libyan dinars 6489. Among economists there has generally been a lack of agreement as to the specific relation between exports and economic growth. Import impact of economic growth on regional economies.
So many researchers have looked at single country effect of export on economic growth, while there are also substantial authors who have examined crosscountry empirical. Dec 10, 2008 this study analyses the relationships between export, import and economic growth for the transition economies. The outcome indicates that exports and imports have positive effect of economic growth. One, referred to as the conventional neoclassical model, assumes that y 0, and thus presents gdp growth as the result of capital and labor growth only. Economic growth is one of the most important determinants of economic welfare. Pdf relationship between exports and economic growth of. On exports and economic growth izani ibrahim abstract this paper focuses on a new estimate of feder 1982s model on productivity and externality effect of exports in six asian countries. This research surveys relationship between exports and economic growth in the industrial sector in iran.
Econometric issues are addressed with the use of crosssectional analysis. In a period of economic growth, firms have more money to invest. Noula armand gilbert senior lecturer, sama gustave linyong phd student gwah munchunga divine m. Pdf the empirical study examined the impact of exports on the economic growth of pakistan. This investment could increase the long run productivity of the economy and therefore, could help boost exports. If some kind of slowing down is inevitable for any new growth 7 as the aggregate sectoral classification for these services is insurance and financial services, the. The causal relationship between exports and economic growth in. Aug 28, 2012 this paper investigates the causality between exports and economic growth of pakistan, through the application of econometric technique granger causality by using real exports of pakistan, real gdp of pakistan, and real terms of trade of pakistan. An empirical analysis on the relationship between nonoil exports and economic growth in nigeria olusola ogunjimi, esther aderinto and toluwalope ogunro lead city university, ibadan oyo state email. In a recession, firms will be more reluctant to invest, and therefore, there will be a slower growth in exports.
In 2009 namibias exports contracted by more than 12% largely due to the global financial crisis. Empirical findings show that the growthled export hypothesis is valid in those countries and growth is rather shaped by increase in import demand. Economic growth, inflation, and unemployment are the big macroeconomic issues of our time. For the causal analysis between exports and economic growth, recent empirical studies have adopted the causality approach suggested by granger 1969 and sims 1972. Economic growth is an increase in the capacity of an economy to produce goods and services, compared from one period of time to another.918 842 51 1236 915 732 836 1368 617 702 973 327 384 95 285 1245 1268 251 906 1109 203 772 1306 1218 69 1061 627 1164 1351 451 7 385 301 1488 715 696 943 1132 68 725 1266 633 1290 242 1137 234